Kaja Kallas and the Five Traps of Russia
At the Helsinki Security Forum, the Estonian PM outlines the traps to avoid with Russia
One of the motifs that has emerged from Russia’s escalation of its invasion of Ukraine last year has been the clear-eyed approach of the Baltic states. These are countries that were occupied and subjugated by Russia during the 20th Century, and they have emerged from this period with an intimate understanding of Russian thinking and how its nefarious behaviour needs to be handled.
Estonia has especially been forthright in its assessments of Russia, and why a firm and united front against it needs to be maintained. At the Helsinki Security Forum today, Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, laid out five traps that we can all fall into when engaging with Russia.
The First Trap: Hope is the first trap. This sentiment may mistakingly take positive advancements as indications of a larger trend – either a compelling victory for Ukraine, or a quick retreat for Russia. To be seduced by hope can mean a reduction in the provision of resources to Ukraine, or a waning of diplomatic support.
The Second Trap: A belief that negotiations will be effective. Negotiations can only take place between good faith actors, as a permanently bad faith actor all negotiations by Russia are a ruse. They are designed to lull Ukraine into a false sense of security and therefore rather than halting aggression, negotiations instead invite it.
The Third Trap: Fear. Fear of escalation, of nuclear warfare, or grey zone tactics like using migrants against European states, are tools used by Russia to encourage submission. To succumb to fear is to allow Russia to win the psychological warfare.
The Fourth Trap: Self-deterrence. Following on from fear is the self-doubt and questioning. It internalises the false idea that defence is escalation. It removes responsibility for the invasion from Russia. And in a demonstration of weakness it encourages further belligerence.
The Fifth Trap: Misinformation. There is a shadow war taking place for minds. Big tech platforms are either failing to understand or to address it, or are astonishing useful idiots (Musk). Russia is excellent at spreading misinformation, and much of it is lapped up by people in the West.
The core message from Kallas is that if belligerence exists, then deterrence is legitimate. Deterrence is only “hawkish” if you sympathise with violent bullies.