Newsletter: Week 3, 2023
The implications of China's declining population; Are women abandoning men?; And a new BBC documentary on Narendra Modi upsets the BJP
China’s Demographic Decline
The most significant geopolitical event of the past week was the announcement that China’s population has begun to decline. This decline was relatively small, with China’s National Bureau of Statistics reporting 850,0000 people less between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. Taking into account the grain of salt that all Chinese statistics should be taken with (the figure may be higher), the statistic indicates the start of what may very well be the most consequential trend of the 21st Century.
Yet there are a few lenses through which we can analyse this trend. Demographics is density and a country’s capabilities come from their people. A country doesn’t need to have 1.4 billion people to be powerful, the capabilities of each individual is what is most important, but a larger population means that under the right conditions – good education, health, economic opportunity – countries with a larger pool of skills are at an advantage.
Bluntly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) having less power at its disposal is positive. However, there is also an argument that authoritarian states become more dangerous as they decline, taking greater risks to exert themselves as compensation for their weakening power. This is clearly the case with Russia today. These risks are also increasing with China as President Xi Jinping has concentrated his power within the party and seemingly abandoned the “whatever works” model that characterised the post-Mao era, returning to the “whatever I say” model of the Mao era. Making governance less competent and more erratic, and the dangers of emotive nationalism more pronounced.
Yet it is also important to acknowledge that between the post-Mao era and the new Xi era China has done an extraordinary job of lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and provided them with good quality lives. This has been a humanitarian marvel. Yet a declining population indicates that this marvel may now stall at a place where China may not yet be wealthy enough to afford to be old. Shifting towards being a much older society will mean that China won’t have the working age population to support its senior citizens comfortably, and this may limit the opportunities available for its youth.
The Abandonment Of Men
Low birth-rates have become a major global trend. This has been driven by the decline in religious observance, greater female education and workforce participation, the higher costs of childcare, general economic insecurity and the cost of housing, and even climate anxiety. Yet, as I wrote in my review essay of Louise Perry’s “The Case Against The Sexual Revolution,” another factor may be the violence of many men, and more broadly the quality of men. This tweet below may seem flippant, but it highlights that women are now understanding the dangers of getting involved with men, and are making the entirely rational calculation that the risks aren’t worth it. (Or even if men aren’t dangerous, they’re simply not in women’s league).
Yet running parallel to this trend in low birth rates, the Australian press recently have been reporting on another trend - single women who have chosen to have children without partners. Effectively these are women who want children, but don’t want men, or cannot find men with the requisite qualities to form a relationship with and who would be a responsible father. This parenting is something women are more than capable of doing by themselves, but it raises the questions of whether women are now simply evolving past men and what broader implications this may have.
For those who have been reading my work this is something I’ve been thinking about a lot lately, and it’s a problem that books like Richard Reeves’s “Of Boys and Men” also addresses. We are seeing a pronounced difficulty in many men being able to cope with the realities of the 21st Century, and this is proving an incredibly destabilising force. This is a serious problem that needs to be addressed, although women should not have to adjust their own ambitions and seek to coddle men in order to placate men’s insecurities.
As I am inclined to think in terms of state capabilities, it is becoming clear that the primary comparative advantage countries will have in the 21st Century is whether they allow their women to flourish, and whether they can help their men mature.
Modi’s Mayhem
This past week in the United Kingdom the BBC released the first of a two-part series on Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi. The first episode – watchable here for those outside the UK – focused on the role Modi played in the Gujarat riots of 2002, when he was chief minister of the state. As has been alleged for some time, Modi directed the police not to intervene in the violence that was targeting the state’s Muslim minority in retribution for a train of Hindu pilgrims being set on fire – which several investigations concluded was an accident, but was deemed at the time to have been started by Muslim men. Almost a decade later thirty-one men were convicted, although under contentious circumstances.
Yet the riots in 2002 can be understood through the idea of “collective punishment.” Given the fraught communal relations in the country, individuals are not deemed responsible for their actions, instead their religious groups are. The anti-Sikh pogroms of 1984 can be also seen through the lens of collective punishment for the assassination of Indira Gandhi. When group identity is so deeply embedded in the social fabric, it is difficult to not see every action through the lens of group competition. I fear the United States is heading this way with – incredibly strangely – their two political parties becoming pronounced identity and social markers.
The argument the BBC documentary is making is that rather than Modi facing consequences for, at best, an abdication of responsibility, he has been rewarded for his actions – with the violence in Gujarat propelling Modi into the prime minister’s office. This has created a significant stir in India – from what I have read in the Indian press and seen on Twitter. With a sense that Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – and by their own extension, India – are being persecuted by the Western media.
Yet this reaction is not about the inaccuracy of the reporting, the sense of persecution is due to a perceived “natural authority” being challenged. This is a phrase I keep returning to because psychological impulses are the real and dominant drivers of all our politics – personal, domestic and international. Deep within humanity there is an ingrained belief in natural hierarchies – whether these be men over women, or one religious or ethnic group over another. It is incredibly difficult to overcome these dispositions. Those who instinctively believe in their natural authority feel that any challenge to this worldview is victimisation.
The BJP believes itself to be above the scrutiny of the press. This is not something unique to it, almost all political parties suffer the same sensitivity – some just greater than others. But what the BBC documentary is arguing is that violence is central to the way the BJP operates and how it has ascended in Indian politics. That violence is a motivational force – a way of exciting people. A force built on group identities that are so pronounced and so emotive that transcending the impositions and impediments of the rule of law and liberal proceduralism is a necessary community expression.
This Week’s Reading and Listening
An Enduring Formula For Australian Foreign Policy
Melissa Conley Tyler - The Interpreter
“The Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade once described the formula for Australia’s foreign policy as “six + two + N”: six key bilateral relationships, two international forums and Australia’s near neighbourhood. The Secretary was Peter Varghese, and the year was 2013. A decade later, how much does the formula still apply to Australian foreign policy?
In terms of the six key relationships, the formula has held up well, with China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and the United States all still among Australia’s vital connections. Australia may feel a bit differently about China and the United States than it did a decade ago – more worried about Chinese assertiveness and more anxious about US fragility – but there is no question that these two top the list of relationships that are key to Australia’s future.”
One of the Most Influential Ambassadors in Washington Isn’t One
Michael Crowley - New York Times
“Even as it draws closer to Taiwan, the United States treats its relationship with Taiwan’s representatives carefully. The State Department issues special red-and-blue license plates to diplomats in Washington, but the ones Ms. Hsiao and her colleagues are granted carry slightly different markings, omitting the word “diplomat.” When Taiwanese officials visit Washington, Biden administration officials meet them not at the White House or State Department, but at the Rosslyn, Va., offices of something called the American Institute in Taiwan — an organization created, funded and staffed by the U.S. government to serve as a middleman. Official letters between the two governments are also passed through the institute.
The U.S. government also prevents Ms. Hsiao from living at Twin Oaks, the 18-acre Washington estate that served as the Taiwanese ambassador’s official residence until the United States, following President Richard Nixon’s historic outreach to Beijing, ended official ties with Taipei. Now it, too, operates under a murky status, with Ms. Hsiao hosting formal events usually devoid of official national symbols.”
Why ‘Economic Security’ Became Magic Words in Japan
David E. Adler - Foreign Policy
“While its definition is sometimes nebulous, “economic security” is far more than a buzzword in Japan. It has led to the reorganisation of the government, including the creation of a minister of economic security at the cabinet level; an economic division within the National Security Secretariat, which is responsible for planning and coordinating economic security policies; and dedicated economic security divisions in other major agencies or ministries, such as foreign affairs, defence, intelligence, and financial services. These divisions are charged with defensive actions such as tech controls, visa screening, cybersecurity, and more—but also with the enactment of industrial policies to grow critical new industries.
The culmination of Japan’s economic security policies has been the Economic Security Promotion Act (ESPA), which Japan’s parliament passed in May 2022 and will be phased in over the next two years. It has four core themes: securing supply chains of critical materials, nondisclosure of patents for security reasons, promoting the development of advanced technologies, and ensuring the security of infrastructure.”
In Our Time - BBC Radio 4 (audio)
“Melvyn Bragg and guests discuss A Theory of Justice by John Rawls (1921 - 2002) which has been called the most influential book in twentieth century political philosophy. It was first published in 1971. Rawls (pictured above) drew on his own experience in WW2 and saw the chance in its aftermath to build a new society, one founded on personal liberty and fair equality of opportunity. While in that just society there could be inequalities, Rawls’ radical idea was that those inequalities must be to the greatest advantage not to the richest but to the worst off.”
Yiddish Glory: Jewish Refugees In Central Asia
The Documentary –BBC World Service
“During World War Two, approximately 1.6 million Soviet, Polish and Romanian Jews survived by escaping to Soviet Central Asia and Siberia, avoiding imminent death. Many of them wrote music about the horrors as the Holocaust unfolded. A miraculous discovery in the Vernadsky National Library in Kyiv revealed a collection of Yiddish music created during the 1940s that documented their numerous traumas. These songs were collected by amateur and professional poets, and then organised by the Ukrainian folklorist Moisei Beregovsky. However, the archive was confiscated by the KGB after the end of the war. The songs were never performed since, in public or in private.
Singer Alice Zawadzski, whose own family found themselves on a similar journey to Central Asia, and historian Anna Shternshis of the University of Toronto, who led the project to bring these songs back to life, travel to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to retrace the journeys of those Jewish refugees who became music composers. From Tashkent and Samarkand to Bukhara and Almaty, they met the descendants of families and children of those survivors who stayed in Central Asia.”
Debate between Rana Foroohar and Parag Khanna
Intelligence Squared Debate (video)
“For a period of time, going global just seemed to make sense. But with China’s rise, Covid-19, and the war in Ukraine, words like “localnomics,” “friends-shoring,” and “decoupling” have helped codify a growing movement that calls for less interdependence between economies. Those in favour of a more “deglobalised” system of trade argue that it is not only more environmentally friendly and responsive to regional needs, but also less of a driver of income inequality. Indeed, globalisation’s three-decade trend of trade growing at twice the speed of the world economy has not lifted all boats, they argue.
For many, including middle-income populations in the industrialised west, it has backfired. Deglobalisation is a welcome a shift. Others disagree. Globalisation’s virtues are unmistakable, they say, resulting in less poverty and higher incomes across the world. People once cut off from markets benefit from new connections in commerce, culture, and communications. For them, it has not backfired. In fact, in the face of political challenges and volatile markets, more regionally-focused trade constitutes a dangerous circling of the wagons. In this context, we ask the question: Has Globalisation Backfired?”
Globalisation Isn’t Dead. But It’s Changing
Jon Hilsenrath & Anthony DeBarros - Wall Street Journal
For decades, multinational companies sought out cheap, efficient supply chains to produce goods for global export, in addition to access to growing young populations in developing countries to spur sales. They operated on the assumption that security and political tensions between countries wouldn’t obstruct their operations. That led many of them to China.
These companies are still looking for cheap, efficient and young markets. But now they also want safety, which for many has meant diversification away from direct tension between the world’s great economic powers. In other words, global economic ties haven’t ended; they are being rerouted, with widespread implications. The efficiencies lost mean higher costs for households and businesses, and profit-margin pressure for companies.
Garry Kasparov & Mikhail Khodorkovsky – Foreign Affairs
“The risk of a Russian collapse is, of course, real. But it is greater with Putin in office—pushing the country in an ever more centralised and militarised direction—than it would be under a democratic, federal regime. The longer the current regime remains in power, the greater the risk of an unpredictable rupture. Putin’s aggression has exposed the inherent instability of his model of government, which is built on the need to confront foreign enemies. The Kremlin Mafia, having turned Russia into a staging ground for its military plans, has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It is not the collapse of Putin’s regime that Washington should fear, therefore, but its continued survival.”
Germany Has Become The Roadblock At The Heart Of Europe
Jeremy Cliffe - The New Statesman
Scholz is not stupid. Nor is Pistorius. Nor, for that matter, was Lambrecht. The German chancellor genuinely believes that support for Ukraine beyond the bare diplomatic minimum would be a dangerous provocation to Russia. Those around him fret less about how Ukraine can defeat Vladimir Putin’s attack than about how to restore and stabilise relations with Moscow after peace talks. Such instincts are deeply rooted. They draw on everything from the deep, romantic German affinity with Russia to a misremembered account of the chancellor Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik, or eastern policy, in the 1970s (which in fact combined diplomatic détente towards the Soviet bloc with a steely commitment to West Germany’s defence capabilities). A profound German fear of nuclear weapons, likewise rooted in the country’s Cold War past, also haunts the chancellery.
Germany Is In Denial About Ukraine
Maurice Frank - Unherd
“One German commentator describes the lingering recalcitrance this way: “It sometimes seems like there’s been an accident, someone is injured, and there’s a bunch of people standing around. And Germany thinks, hopefully someone knows what they’re doing and takes decisive action to help the person, otherwise they might die. There’s a war in Europe, it would be good if someone did something. But Zeitenwende means we’re the ones who have to do something.”
Germany is doing something. The question is: is it enough? Despite the words coming out of Scholz’s mouth, it still feels as though the nation is in denial about the fact that there’s a devastating war raging just two countries away. Or it is, at least, in denial about the nature of that war — and the huge geopolitical shift it represents.”
Modi’s China Policy Is a Failure
Anchal Vohra - Foreign Policy
“Modi’s numerous attempts to woo Xi—whether through the evocation of hospitality, history, or global statesmanship—have done little to stem China’s increasingly assertive claims along its 2,100-mile border with India. This worsening of bilateral relations represents a political problem for Modi, who sold himself to the Indian populace as a strong leader, unforgiving on questions of territorial integrity and national security. Yet he has presided over a loss of men and reportedly also land to the Chinese.
But India-China relations also represent a clear policy failure for Modi. New Delhi has limited options against a militarily and economically superior Beijing, yet experts say Modi’s chosen China policy has been too cautious and passive to ever have realistically deterred Xi and is being exploited by the Chinese. Modi’s apparent fear of engaging in any military confrontation that would tarnish his strongman image at home has exacerbated the problem.”
Asim Ali - The Telegraph (Kolkata)
“What is ‘love jihad’? There is the quasi-formal, barebones definition characterising a widespread conspiracy to lure Hindu women with love and convert them to Islam. In practice though, it is more akin to a phantasmagoria that is Everything Everywhere All at Once, to borrow the title of a recent science fiction blockbuster depicting an absurdist multiverse.
The import of generative themes can also be gauged from their role in the construction of a charismatic Hindutva leadership. The discourse of generative themes dovetails seamlessly into the yearning for a redemptive leader strong enough to solve the intractable puzzle problem posed by the themes. Much like L.K. Advani rose on the wave of ‘Babri Masjid’ and Modi on the post-9/11, post-Godhrawave of ‘Islamic extremism’, Yogi Adityanath has risen on the wave of love jihad as the principal redemptive figure of the generative theme that has most stimulated the Hindu nationalist imagination over the last decade. It is no longer a conspiracy theory which suggests a worldview at odds with the commonsensical understanding of social realities or with a shared normative paradigm. Instead,it is closer to the dominant expression of the national zeitgeist.”
Violent Misogyny In Policing, Violent Misogyny In Society
Sian Norris - The Byline Times
“There is a culture of impunity when it comes to men’s violence against women and girls. It’s a culture too many people uphold. They defend colleagues and friends and family members accused of sexual misconduct. They give them awards and promotions. They cover their crimes. They welcome them back to the stage or warn women against ruining a man’s life. That defence de facto brands women as liars.
Then there is what is commonly referred to as a ‘rape culture’ in the UK. The hard data on how many men rape and get away with it, the ongoing rape myths that seek to blame women for the violence they endure, and the endemic nature of violent pornography that eroticises abuse, show how men’s violence against women has become normalised.
And the misogynistic attitudes which shape our society also shape policing.”
What To Do With A Met Police That Harbours Rapists And Murderers? Scrap It And Start Again
Jonathan Freedland - The Guardian
“It won’t wash to say that the police reflect society and so will always include a proportionate number of abusers. These numbers are disproportionate. That suggests that the police are attracting more than their share of violent, abusive men. There’s no mystery about that. A job that gives you power over women and the vulnerable, including access to their personal information, is bound to lure men bent on doing harm. The answer is to tighten vetting, so that recruiters are looking out for those who want a police badge for all the wrong reasons.
But the grimmer truth is that this malady goes far beyond the police. There were 70,000 rapes recorded last year in England and Wales alone – 1,350 a week – and those are just the ones that were reported, estimated as a mere quarter or fifth of all the rapes that happen. Of those recorded, just 1.3% resulted in a suspect being charged. Obviously only a fraction of those ended in a conviction. When fewer than one in a hundred rapists ever face any consequences, it’s time for a society to be honest with itself – and admit that it has, in effect, decriminalised rape. Worse, says Smith, it is creating serial rapists: a man does it once, gets away with it, and realises he can do it again. And again.”
Schemas and the Political Brain
The Garden of Forking Paths - Brian Klass
“Memory is closer to imagination than we think, recreating what fits rather than perfectly recalling what happened.
This matters for politics, because it means that people have an easier time processing and retaining information that matches their worldview; that they will pay more attention to stories that affirm their mental frameworks for understanding the world; and they will even rewrite reality to match those schemas operating in their heads.
A politician can behave flawlessly, but if our schema has already typecast them as an incompetent or malicious moron, then no fresh facts will dig them out of that hole.
It doesn’t matter what’s true. It matters what mental framework voters use to assess political options before them. And on that front, Republicans are often significantly better at ignoring the policy details and focusing instead on shaping schemas within which voters perceive the world. Too many people in politics think you’ll win the argument if you have better facts. But winning the argument in politics isn’t often about finding more or better facts. It’s about perception and the cognitive shortcuts we use to process information as we sort our world into neat categories that make sense.”