This Side Of The Blue: 25 November 2022
The dangers of population anxiety, the era of strongmen, and Indian-Australians organise politically. Plus this week's essential reading and music playlist
The Dangers of Population Anxiety
Last week two events coincided that seemed like they were directly related - the COP27 Climate Change Conference held in Egypt and the world’s population ticking over to 8 billion people. This is because to some, like the former the former environment editor of The Guardian, John Vidal, the number of people on earth is unambiguously detrimental to the planet’s health.
Yet this is not only a superficial analysis of the drivers of climate change, but it is an incredibly dangerous line of thought that if embraced by governments could lead to appalling human rights abuses.
It is also unnecessarily alarmist. The world’s population may be increasing, but the rate of population growth is declining. Although the United Nations has been revising its own figures downward in recent years, it is still believed that their figures overestimate the peak of human population and when we will reach this peak. Human population is expected to top out well short of 10 billion around 2065 and then rapidly start to decline.
There is a deep misanthropy that runs through environmental population anxiety. It is built on a belief that human beings are a virus on the planet and incapable of living in harmony with nature. There is also a deep Western arrogance built into – a sense that the developing world cannot be allowed to develop due to strain on the environment this would create. Only those who “think correctly” should be afforded the trappings of wealth, and the ability to procreate.
Population anxiety is also built on an assumption that humanity has reached its technological peak. It cannot comprehend a scenario where we can increase the living standards for those outside of the developed world and reduce our carbon footprint and consumption of natural resources.
Like all utopian visions for humanity, “dark green” or Neo-Malthusian environmentalism has the seeds of genocide within it due to its suspicion of out-groups and the zeal of its worldview. Given their deep misanthropy this may be a feature not a bug, but for those of us concerned with the welfare of people as well as the environment, we should be wary of giving this perspective any credibility or political power.
The Age Of The Strongman
Last night I went to see Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist at the Financial Times, speak at the National Gallery of Victoria about his book The Age Of The Strongman. Rachman gave a brief summary of his arguments before engaging in a Q&A session with the Lydia Khalil of the Lowy Institute, as well as taking questions from the audience.
Rachman’s primary argument is that in the past decade or so we have seen an advancement of a certain kind of authoritarian leader who have built strong personality cults around themselves. This is apparent in authoritarian countries like China and Russia, but also in democratic ones like the United States, Brazil, India and Turkey.
These leaders have often – although not entirely – eschewed the traditional ideological concerns of political parties and instead forged a sense that all that matters is the judgement of the leader. That the leader himself (as it is mostly men, although Italy now has a female authoritarian leader) is the unique embodiment of the nation, and is therefore the only person capable of navigating the state.
What these leaders also share is a way of projecting a sense of a crisis onto their societies. Rather than having any vision for the future, their appeal is to “the frightened majority” who are seeking security in a romanticised vision of the past. These leaders have become “masters of spreading doubt” – a sense that everything is corrupt and there is no truth. Often projecting themselves as been opposed to the very systems they are the leaders of.
While many of these politicians do have nefarious and self-serving aims, Rachman also highlighted that they have found fertile ground in a sense that progress – however defined – has been halted, that there is an unfairness to their societies (real or perceived) and there is a sense of loss in the rapid pace of change. How these problems are solved is the path to taking oxygen away from the new strongmen.
Indian-Australians Organise Politically
Several years ago I was involved in a project with Dr Jay Song at the University of Melbourne that sought to understand the lack of Asian-Australian representatives in Australia’s parliaments (federal, state and territory) – you can read an essay of mine drawn from this research at the Melbourne Asia Review. In this project one of the representatives we focused on was Kaushaliya Vaghela, who had been elected to Victoria’s Legislative Council (upper house) for the Labor Party. Recently, however, she has fallen out with the party (the details of which I won’t go into), and as a result has decided to form her own party, the New Democrats (with a nod to the Canadian party of the same name).
Tomorrow Victoria will hold an election and what is curious about Vaghela’s party is that it is running candidates exclusively from Indian backgrounds. The story of recent migration to Australia has been the explosion of the Indian-Australian community, which has been heavily concentrated in Melbourne. The city will soon overtake Sydney to become the country’s largest and migrants from India have been the central driver of this growth.
In the Legislative Assembly (lower house), the party are only running candidates in seats in Melbourne’s western suburbs - where the much of Indian migration to Australia is now located. The party’s policies also focus on improving infrastructure and services in these suburbs where investment hasn’t kept pace with population growth. As well as enhancing culturally appropriate services.
It is unlikely that the party will win any seats, but what will be interesting - and what the major parties will be keeping an eye on - is how many votes the party receives and in what lower house seats and upper house districts. As this is will indicate whether the Indian-Australian community is voting with their direct interests in mind – which they see as best represented by fellow Indian-Australians, and how the community is emerging as a new politically powerful bloc.
This Week’s Essential Reading
A New Theory Of American Power
George Parker – The Atlantic
“This recognition of limits would make a foreign policy founded on liberal values more persuasive abroad and more sustainable with the American electorate, holding off the next oscillation toward grandiosity or gloom. Where democracy exists, strengthen it and defend it against foreign subversion, if necessary with arms. Where it doesn’t, take care to understand particular movements for change, and offer only support that preserves their legitimacy. Align U.S. policy with the universal desire for freedom, but maintain a keen sense of unintended consequences and no illusions of easy success.”
The Failure Of A Public Philosophy
Win McCormack – The New Republic
“In a new edition of Democracy’s Discontent, Sandel argues that procedural liberalism’s success in keeping serious political discussion and debate out of the public realm for as long a time as it has is “at the heart of democracy’s discontent.” Americans have lost faith in the possibility of self-government, and they are frightened by the disintegration of community they see happening all around them. Twenty-six years since Democracy’s Discontent was first published, Sandel writes that this way of thinking has brought us to a political precipice—a moment when the combination of frayed social bonds and intense political polarisation calls into question the very future of the American experiment.”
No Winners In The Indian National Congress Presidential Race
Arun R Swamy - East Asia Forum
But the continued charismatic authority enjoyed by — or perhaps thrust upon — Indira Gandhi’s descendants owes less to their popularity, which has been declining steadily, and more to the internal dynamics of the INC. The existence of a charismatic ‘supreme leader’ has long allowed losing factions in regional units to appeal against more popular regional leaders. These appeals are usually to a national leadership that is often itself little more than a coterie around the supreme leader. This has led disgruntled regional leaders with a significant popular base to exit the party, leaving only those whose political survival depends on support from the single central leader to lead state units. Both factors were on display in the recent contest.
Madiha Afzal – Foreign Affairs
“The clash between Khan and the government and the military has become all-consuming in Pakistan’s media and public sphere. It has unfolded while the country has lurched from crisis to crisis. It has made Pakistan’s economic struggles—with record-high inflation and dwindling foreign reserves—worse by increasing uncertainty, diverting attention away from policy solutions, and distracting badly from the necessary response to the late summer floods, which submerged a third of the country. Apart from a short time at the height of the flooding, when the government focused its attention on relief efforts in devastated areas, this battle for power has remained the central focus of the government, Khan’s party, the military, and the media. The sense of instability and constant jockeying for position seem likely to continue until the next election and may intensify if General Bajwa’s successor (due to be announced by the prime minister this month as the general’s tenure expires) is someone Khan does not favour. It may spill over into more violence; after all, Pakistan is a country with a tragic history of political assassinations.”
Ruling Against Scottish Independence Vote Throws Ball Back In Political Arena
David Allen Green – Financial Times
“There is no appeal from the Supreme Court. The legal route to an independence referendum without the consent of Westminster or Whitehall now comes to an end. The issue returns from the realm of law to the realm of politics. And so it is from a political perspective that the Scottish government can be heartened. Wednesday’s judgment shows the limitations of the devolution settlement. This will bolster supporters of independence, who will maintain that the decision shows Scotland is locked into a supposedly “voluntary” union with no unilateral way out.”
Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy Can’t Be Undone
Rachel A. George – Foreign Policy
“Regardless of what happens in Sweden, the feminist foreign-policy movement is far from over. The elevation of feminist issues to the country’s highest-profile international engagements means that attempts to roll back its policies on women’s rights will inevitably meet attention and scrutiny. Traditionally, governments hostile to gender equality issues have been able to shift their approaches under the cover of wider budgetary and strategic changes, but the feminist foreign-policy agenda has forced these decisions into public view. “Anti-feminist” policies are no longer the status quo but rather an exposed choice.
Although the feminist foreign-policy agenda in Sweden can be reversed on paper, its legacy at home and abroad cannot be fully erased.”
Stephen Bush – Financial Times
“The subtext of Reeves’ work is: however unfashionable these concerns might be in progressive circles, if they go unaddressed, men will seek solace in the false wisdom of ultraconservatives promising to unpick the progress achieved by feminism and to “restore” men to their proper place. If non-graduates — a class that looks increasingly likely to become male-dominated — face a grim future in the workplace and outside of it, then the “crisis of masculinity” will become a crisis for all of us sooner or later.”
Germany Sees High Numbers In Femicide
Rina Goldenberg - Deutsche Welle
“In each case, all the circumstances are taken into account, and the judge often sees the perpetrator's emotional distress as a mitigating circumstance, implying that he inflicted pain on himself in helpless jealousy by killing the woman he loved.
Many judges refer back to a verdict passed in 2008 by the Federal Court of Justice, Germany's supreme court for civil and criminal proceedings. The court overturned a lower court's murder verdict and ruled that the defendant had not been malicious in his actions. The court found no abject and base motives, which are the prerequisite for a murder sentence. Instead, it stated, "The separation was initiated by the victim herself and by killing her the accused deprived himself of what he actually did not want to lose."
This is the very definition of femicide — the killing of a woman on account of her gender.”
Olaf Scholz Is Undermining Western Unity On China
Fergus Hunter & Daria Impiombato - Foreign Policy
“Scholz has been at odds with his coalition partners, including Robert Habeck, minister of economic affairs and climate action, and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock—both members of the Green party—over how to deal with China. The Green ministers have been pushing for “no more naivety” and efforts to reduce the risk of “blackmail” from China. Six ministers in Scholz’s coalition government opposed the Cosco investment but ultimately agreed to a compromise that capped China’s stake in the Hamburg port. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Habeck warned that heavily China-dependent German companies need to be conscious that they “risk their business model” should there be geopolitical headwinds with China, such as a potential conflict over Taiwan. At the Asia-Pacific Conference of German Business in Singapore last week, he said that Germany’s current economic diversification efforts were not adequate and that “we are even increasing our dependence on China.”
The Qatar World Cup Exposes Soccer’s Shame
Tom McTague - The Atlantic
“More than a one-off scandal, the World Cup in Qatar is a fable of the world we live in—and not just the world of soccer. Qatar 2022 is what happens when a corrupted international organisation with huge power and little accountability is put in charge of things that matter; when democracies are willing to sell themselves, their institutions, and even their culture to the highest bidder; and when whole economies become dependent on the exploitation of cheap, globalized labor and unregulated capital. Qatar is like an extra shot of vodka in this cocktail of shame, a distillation of all that is wrong, which is usually masked by other ingredients.
Underlying the shame of the World Cup in Qatar and the petrostate ownership of European soccer is this banal reality: These states are our diplomatic and commercial allies. We in the West not only accept their money for our sports teams, but we buy their fossil fuels and in return sell them arms. And we seal the deal by placing our hands on weird glowing orbs in the desert to profess our friendship. To expect sports to act as some honorable exception while the rest of society is trying to make as much money as possible—regardless of the morality or long-term security of their countries—is ridiculous.”