Week 9: Rejecting Instability
Australians have a natural suspicion of destabilising forces, making the Liberal Party increasingly unpopular
This weekend there was a by-election here in Australia in a federal seat called Dunkley in Melbourne’s outer southeast. The by-election was due to the death of the sitting MP of the governing Labor Party. The party held the seat by 6% – a margin that could not be considered safe.
Governments tend to do poorly at by-elections as a general rule, as people often use these elections to “send a message” that they otherwise might not at a general election. The current cost of living being a subject many people are rightly concerned about. Alongside this, the demographics of Dunkley are those that the opposition Liberal Party are now trying to target as they seek to pivot from a party of the wealthy “boss class” to one of lower socio-economic status in outer suburban areas (following the Republican Party’s lead).
As a test of this new party strategy it failed. Labor retained the seat comfortably.
I think this result says something more broadly about Australia as a whole, and something that distinguishes the country from similar countries like the UK and US.
Political parties and the media tend to think of politics in terms of the traction they can gain through different issues. They see the public as issue-based voters, and if a narrative around a certain issue can be reinforced this can produce an election win.
Yet there is one meta-feature of who Australians are that guides almost every election. It sits above all issues (although can be activated by certain issues) – a common disposition of the country.
Australians are a conservative people. I don’t mean this is the political sense, but in the psychological sense. Australians value consistency and stability. The party that can best provide this is the party that the country will put it faith in.
Despite being conservative in the political sense, the Liberal Party are not conservative in the psychological sense. Like their sister parties in the Republican Party and the Conservative Party in the UK, they have become agents of instability (and frankly, not very conservative at all). These are now parties of turbulent emotions, struggling to cope with the modern world and seeking to project this turbulence onto their respective countries. This is less likely to find traction in Australia.
One of the many key advantageous of Australia’s compulsory voting is that it doesn’t only breed a domestic political awareness. Australians see the chaos of the Republican Party especially (although the Tories too) and will not take kindly to any attempts to import this into their country. They see the Liberal Party using similar destabilising tactics and are sending it an obvious message (which the party is ignoring). Presently, Tasmania – a state of just 500,000 people – is the only jurisdiction in the country the party governs (with an election there in 3 weeks).
By contrast, in the UK this week a by-election in the seat of Rochdale elected an agent of chaos – disinformation peddler and despot fondler, George Galloway. There were a number of unique occurrences that cleared the path for Galloway, but his win still demonstrates a taste for cynicism and chaos that is becoming pronounced in many countries. The very real prospect of a return to the White House of Donald Trump being the major example.
Australia is, of course, not immune to grifters and bad politicians. But it does feel a little more resilient at present.
This week in Melbourne is the ASEAN-Australia summit, with leaders from all Southeast Asian states (bar Myanmar) coming to the city (and given that some are less than pleasant not everyone is happy - see the above photo). Yet Australia’s relationships within Southeast Asia are of critical importance, and so the summit is a major priority for the government.
I’ll be attending a conference on maritime cooperation on Monday, and we at Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence as co-hosting an event on the summit with the Asia Institute at the University of Melbourne on Tuesday.
Following that, I’ve had the honour of being selected by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to participate in an Emerging Leaders program split between Melbourne and Sydney from Wednesday onwards. This, unfortunately, means having to go behind enemy lines and travel to Sydney. The program has something ominously titled “Sydney experience” on it, which I am naturally suspicious of. Given I don’t own a pair of shorts, nor a polo shirt to pop its collar, I’m not sure I’ll be able to integrate into the local culture. Although I guess the broad aim of the program is to develop the skills to overcome the barriers that often prevent greater trust and understanding between vastly different peoples. If I can head back to Melbourne without feeling too much animosity world peace cannot be far away.
Australia’s federal opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has been trying his best to ramp up the fear over a boat of 40 asylum seekers that landed on the coast of Western Australia a few weeks ago. These boats are now incredible rare, but Dutton sensed a political opportunity. Yet if he thought it might help in the Dunkley by-election he was mistaken. The country is different from the early-2000s. A little wiser to these kinds of tactics, and no longer finding appeal in headkickers like Dutton.
Yet in honour of Dutton I thought I’d share a song from that early-2000 era – Ministry of Fear by Bluebottle Kiss. Over on Lunch Hour Pops I recently wrote an essay on the band, which also includes several snide remarks about Sydney.